{"id":59656,"date":"2026-04-23T14:45:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T19:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/?p=59656"},"modified":"2026-04-23T14:56:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T19:56:27","slug":"does-the-iran-war-change-our-view-that-equity-market-broadening-will-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cambridgeassociates.com\/en-eu\/insight\/does-the-iran-war-change-our-view-that-equity-market-broadening-will-continue\/","title":{"rendered":"Does the Iran War Change Our View That Equity Market Broadening Will Continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"

No. The Iran War does not alter our conviction that the broad equity rally that began in 2025 will continue. Although the conflict has introduced short-term uncertainty\u2014particularly around energy prices and inflation\u2014it has not weakened the underlying forces driving broader market leadership across regions and segments. As a result, we continue to favor positioning that leans into wider participation, particularly through non-US equities and developed markets small caps.<\/p>\n

That broadening is already evident in market performance. Returns have become less dependent on a narrow group of mega-cap US stocks, and leadership has continued to widen across regions and capitalizations. Building on its strong outperformance in 2025, the MSCI ACWI ex US Index outperformed the MSCI US Index by another 460 basis points (bps) year-to-date. Smaller-cap leadership has also strengthened: the S&P 600 Index has outpaced the MSCI US Index by roughly 850 bps year-to-date and remains ahead over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n

The macro backdrop continues to support this shift. Growth remains modest but is accelerating across many regions, helped in part by rising fiscal support. Germany is the clearest example<\/a><\/strong>, where defense spending alone could total \u20ac650 billion between 2025 and 2030, double the level of the previous five years. At the same time, longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and have not moved enough to alter either the growth outlook or our broader asset class views. In Japan and Korea, continued progress on corporate governance reform should further support earnings quality, capital allocation, and shareholder returns.<\/p>\n

Against that constructive backdrop, the Iran War still presents meaningful near-term risks. The key concerns are oil supply disruptions, shipping bottlenecks, and firmer inflation expectations. While the ceasefire extension is an encouraging sign against further escalation, Iran\u2019s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most international traffic keeps these risks elevated. Even so, a limited flare-up would most likely result in only temporary volatility and a brief increase in oil prices. A broader conflict involving additional state actors or a prolonged disruption to strait transit would require a more fundamental reassessment, particularly if it led to sustained shipping disruption, persistently higher oil prices that fed into core inflation expectations, or tighter financial conditions that began to undermine growth. We view that outcome as unlikely, given the incentives of all parties to avoid it.<\/p>\n

On balance, that leaves the case for non-US equities intact. The macro environment remains supportive, and valuations continue to provide an important cushion. The MSCI ACWI ex US Index trades at roughly 13.7x forward earnings, a discount of about 30% to the MSCI US Index\u2019s 20.0x multiple. That valuation gap should remain supportive if market leadership continues to broaden beyond the most expensive segments of the US market.<\/p>\n

At first glance, stronger 2026 US earnings growth estimates (19% versus roughly 14% for the MSCI EAFE Index) may seem to challenge that view, but the gap overstates the breadth of the US advantage. Much of the projected US growth remains concentrated in the heavily weighted information technology and communication services sectors and, beyond that, in a small number of companies. The Magnificent 7 are expected to account for more than 40% of the S&P 500 net income growth in 2026, and more than half of the roughly 3 percentage-point rise in bottom-up S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts since late February came from a narrow cluster of companies, led by Micron Technology and several large-cap energy names. That concentration creates meaningful single-theme execution risk tied to artificial intelligence\u2013related capital spending. Any moderation in that cycle\u2014whether from weaker demand, regulatory constraints, or renewed capex discipline\u2014would likely weigh more heavily on US earnings than on peers. By contrast, global ex US markets have less exposure to those narrow leadership groups and a more diversified earnings base overall, and they should also benefit as marginal flows from foreign investors into US assets make up a smaller share of total cross-border allocations, reducing an important source of relative support for US equities.<\/p>\n

Similar logic supports our preference for developed markets small caps over large caps. Valuations remain attractive: the MSCI World Small-Cap Index trades at roughly 16.1x forward earnings versus about 18.2x for the MSCI World Index. At the same time, small caps do not require giving up earnings growth. The 12-month expected forward earnings growth for the MSCI World Small-Cap Index is 18.2%, above the 16.7% for the MSCI World Index. In other words, small caps offer a more attractive valuation entry point alongside slightly stronger earnings growth expectations, a combination that should prove supportive if leadership continues to broaden beyond the narrow group of mega-cap winners that has dominated recent years. In the United States specifically, small caps should also benefit from their relatively large industrial exposure, given ongoing support from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.<\/p>\n

In sum, while the conflict has increased near-term sensitivity to energy and inflation shocks, it has not undermined the broader case for continued equity market broadening. That view is still supported by the same forces that were in place before the conflict: improving relative valuations, more favorable earnings breadth, and a macro backdrop consistent with wider market participation. Our tilts toward non-US equities and developed markets small caps remain grounded in those dynamics, which we believe are still fully intact.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No. The Iran War does not alter our conviction that the broad equity rally that began in 2025 will continue. Although the conflict has introduced short-term uncertainty\u2014particularly around energy prices and inflation\u2014it has not weakened the underlying forces driving broader market leadership across regions and segments. 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