No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]
March 2024
On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the trading of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly ten years after the first application. The approval follows last year’s decision by a US Appeals Court that limited the SEC’s discretion in denying applications. While we doubt this decision will meaningfully impact sophisticated investors in the […]
January 2024
We expect the US dollar and gold will more or less hold their values, given our economic expectation and the many geopolitical risks. We believe the yen will appreciate, and we expect the thawing crypto winter will fully transition to a spring. The US Dollar and Gold Should Hold Their Value in 2024 Sean Duffin, […]
December 2023
Over the past two weeks, central banks in the United States, United Kingdom, euro area, and Japan have all held monetary policy meetings. The communications following these meetings retained a hawkish bias, suggesting further policy tightening may be necessary—except for the Bank of Japan (BOJ)—however, additional interest rate hikes will likely be much less frequent […]
September 2023
No, we expect that while the US dollar should decline from its current elevated level over the medium term, there are factors that will continue to provide it with support in the short term. If our expectations are met, later this year or early next year should be an opportune time to consider positioning portfolios […]
May 2023
No, it’s not over, but the worst of it is past us. After the liquid token market’s remarkable January, some called an early spring. To be sure, January’s returns were extraordinary, with bitcoin up 39%. However, token prices are only back to levels seen prior to FTX’s collapse in November and the industry is still […]
February 2023
We expect the US dollar to remain firm but with limited appreciation relative to 2022, given our view that it is near the end of its incredible multi-year run. We believe gold’s performance will improve and digital assets, in general, will not surpass prior highs, many of which were set in 2021. 2023 Will Not […]
December 2022
Yes. The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy market challenges have contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar in recent quarters, and we expect that trends in both factors may continue to be supportive of the dollar in the short term. Nonetheless, on a longer horizon, historical precedents suggest that the dollar is approaching the […]
September 2022